Attendance and wait occasions have been on the rise to their vacation highs, as Christmas crowds have begun arriving at Walt Disney World. This crowd report shares current knowledge, ideas on what’s prone to occur subsequent with crowd ranges between now and New Year’s Eve, and which dates will find yourself being the busiest of December 2022.
As all the time, December has been a ‘tale of two months’ at Walt Disney World. As we’ve beforehand shared, we spent lots of time within the parks within the first half of the month, and customarily had a implausible time. (See Our Favorite Week of the Entire Year at Walt Disney World–And Why! for extra.)
With Christmas lower than one week away, issues have modified in a rush at Walt Disney World. For most longtime followers, that’s hardly a shock. Contrary to persistent city legends that the parks are “dead” on holidays as a result of everyone seems to be at dwelling with their households, Walt Disney World sometimes sees two of its busiest weeks of the complete 12 months within the lead-up to Christmas and New Year’s Eve.
As all the time, what’s coated in these “crowd” stories is definitely posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Experience and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating numerous days, weeks, months, and years. So much could be gleaned from posted wait occasions, however it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
There are a number of different variables that may influence “feels like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to journey breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week. And that’s only a partial record! Beyond that, wait occasions could be manipulated by Walt Disney World. They’re typically inflated, or in any other case inaccurate.
In brief, wait occasions are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million folks over the course of the final decade-plus. With that out of the way in which, let’s dig into the information and have a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As all the time, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll begin with the weekly numbers for Walt Disney World as a complete. Thanksgiving week (the tallest purple line in the direction of the appropriate) is the third highest week of the 12 months up to now, behind solely Presidents’ Day and the height of spring break season.
Following that vacation, there was a pointy week-to-week drop, with wait occasions falling by quarter-hour on common from 49 minutes (10/10 crowd ranges) to 34 minutes (3/10 crowd ranges). Since then, crowd ranges have regularly been swelling again in the direction of their vacation highs. (Note that I lower this graph off as of yesterday, in any other case right now would present up as its personal week.)
Breaking it down by day, and it’s not fairly so regular. Crowds elevated noticeably within the first full week of December from their post-Thanksgiving lows earlier than dropping once more for just a few days final week. However, crowds have as soon as once more been on the rise in the previous few days. The last bar is right now (December 19, 2022) and exhibits Walt Disney World as soon as once more approaching the vacation highs of Thanksgiving week.
The lower is stunning, however the subsequent improve just isn’t. This is technically the week earlier than Christmas, and now’s sometimes when peak vacation crowds arrive at Walt Disney World. We’re anticipating that dynamic to vary considerably this 12 months–extra on that within the commentary on the finish.
We’ll begin the park-by-park knowledge with Magic Kingdom, which continues its greatest porcupine impression. This graph may lead you to consider that the pattern is there isn’t any pattern. However, when overlaid with Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party dates, it turns into apparent what is occurring right here.
This is one thing we’ve coated at size, repeatedly, however one final time, most individuals keep away from Magic Kingdom on party-shortened days and crowd into the dates with longer hours and no get together. This ends in considerably decrease wait occasions on get together days. Almost each day of MNSSHP or MVMCP at Magic Kingdom has been under 3/10 on the gang calendar.
That spiky graph isn’t simple to learn or draw conclusions from past the one about get together days, so let’s check out weekly wait occasions, which easy out the MVMCP v. non-party days.
From this, we will see Magic Kingdom drop from 8/10 throughout Thanksgiving week to 2/10 after, and slowly rebound within the 2 weeks since. Even this doesn’t inform the entire story, as returning leisure and characters–in Magic Kingdom and elsewhere–has impacted wait occasions and the distribution of attendance amongst all 4 parks. (Just have a look at how wait occasions, as a complete, dropped on the finish of April.)
Above are attraction wait occasions for the month (by December 19, 2022) at Magic Kingdom, which clearly exclude the week of Thanksgiving and days thereafter in November.
The greatest shock right here is Space Mountain, which as of a pair weeks in the past was working effectively and had comparatively low waits. The wait time has spiked extra not too long ago, which could possibly be coincidence, however is extra possible because of downtime on one aspect of the journey. Everything else is about par for the course. Haunted Mansion and Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin are excessive, however that’s hardly unprecedented. Splash Mountain is additional down the record, however that’s a byproduct of climate. I’m barely stunned it hasn’t climbed up the rankings a bit now that there’s a concrete closure date–I suppose most followers have already stated goodbye.
Continuing to EPCOT, the place crowd ranges are hovering as soon as once more. After spiking to a ten/10 for the vacation, ranges have been within the low to average vary for the previous few weeks. Over the course of the weekend and right now, they’ve steadily risen to the ten/10 degree as soon as once more (if right now’s common holds, right now would be the third busiest day of the 12 months at EPCOT).
As all the time, “feels like” crowds at EPCOT–particularly in World Showcase–are all the time worse on weekends and evenings. We spent lots of time at EPCOT within the first couple weeks of December and it felt busy even when crowd ranges have been 6/10. This is regardless of the return of Fantasmic, which has undoubtedly relieved a number of the stress on Harmonious.
When taking a look at attraction wait occasions, there aren’t any surprises at EPCOT, both.
The high trio of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, Frozen Ever After, and Test Track are all above an hour, however every part else has been principally manageable. Again, that is for the complete month–the story is way worse in simply the final 3 days. Once the date vary is narrowed, Soarin’ Around the World and Mission: Space additionally be part of the record of hour-plus common wait occasions. (The headliner trio all approaches triple digits, too.)
Animal Kingdom had its busiest day of the 12 months Thanksgiving week, and by a large margin. The common wait time was 74 minutes, which might be a 15/10 or so if the gang calendar went above 10. This is the busiest day we’ve seen at Animal Kingdom since we started monitoring wait occasions in 2019.
After a quieter couple of weeks, that’s the place wait occasions are trending as soon as once more. This weekend was within the 7/10 vary and right now is a “normal” 10/10 at Animal Kingdom. The park will possible see even worse days within the week forward, approaching that “15/10” crowd degree territory as soon as once more.
As with the opposite parks, particular person journey wait occasions are nearly precisely what we’d count on up to now in December 2022.
Avatar Flight of Passage is sort of off the chart, adopted not-so-closely by Na’vi River Journey and Kilimanjaro Safaris. As with each different park, this wait time chart is for the complete month–the previous few days are a lot worse, with Flight of Passage averaging 169 minutes.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. After a number of days of 10/10 crowd ranges and 70+ minute common wait occasions through the week of Thanksgiving, numbers sharply declined through the two weeks after. Unfortunately, that (relative) lull is now a factor of the previous.
Over the weekend, DHS crowd ranges as soon as once more spiked. The final two days have seen the return of 10/10 crowds, with common wait occasions of 64 and 66 minutes. Still not as dangerous as Thanksgiving, however there’s nonetheless loads of time.
Disney’s Hollywood Studios is the place the person attraction wait occasions get attention-grabbing. Up till this weekend, Tower of Terror was #1 because of one of many elevator shafts being out of service (once more). Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance has since handed each it and Slinky Dog Dash, however all 3 have been dangerous.
Again, that is for the whole thing of the month. Switching to the final week, wait occasions for all three plus Millennium Falcon: Smugglers Run are over 100 minutes. Toy Story Mania, Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway, and Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster aren’t far behind–all at or above 85 minutes. And that is solely going to get worse.
Speaking of which, it’s fairly secure to foretell that this week might be busier than final week. Another not-so-bold prediction is that this coming weekend might be busier than the weekend that simply concluded. The stretch between then and New Year’s Eve might be even busier nonetheless, particularly with each Christmas and NYE bookending that week.
None of those predictions are notably daring. Historically, crowd ranges incrementally improve all through the month of December, with the week main as much as Christmas being the second-worst week of the month. The week main as much as New Year’s Eve is often the worst week of December…and generally the complete 12 months. However, there are just a few wildcards this 12 months…
First, the climate. Check out that 10-day forecast for Walt Disney World above. No, not the rain this week–that’s par for the course in Florida and gained’t have a fabric influence on crowds.
Instead, have a look at the low temperatures this coming weekend and into subsequent week. Historically, chilly climate has put a damper on crowds, as fewer locals go to the parks when it’s freezing (actually, on this case) exterior. This has even been the pattern when Osceola and Orange Counties are out for his or her winter breaks–precisely the identical factor occurred again in 2018.
Second, the Disney Park Pass scenario. Over the weekend, reservation availability was absolutely refilled (see above) for the week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve. While all dates have since turned yellow, the fact is that many extra reservations can be found this 12 months than have been final 12 months and even for Thanksgiving.
Obviously, we don’t know what number of reservations Walt Disney World has launched, however given present crowds and the way lengthy these Park Passes remained accessible, our guess is…loads.
Finally, there’s the most important wildcard: the timing of each Christmas and New Year’s Eve. In a standard 12 months, the week main as much as Christmas can be actually busy (10/10 crowd ranges) however nonetheless not as dangerous as the next week. Lots of people would take the partial week off work to move to Walt Disney World for Christmas, however much more had the total week between then and New Year’s Eve off. That has been notably true when each holidays fall midweek.
When Christmas and New Year’s Eve fall on the weekend, crowds skew in the direction of the latter. This is particularly true when Christmas falls on a Sunday. Intuitively, this could make full sense: far fewer folks take the week earlier than Christmas off when it doesn’t happen throughout these weekdays.
The finish result’s disproportionate crowding between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, with the week forward of Christmas ‘absorbing’ much less of the vacation attendees. (The undeniable fact that Walt Disney World launched reductions for December 11-25 must also communicate volumes about attendance and occupancy forecasts for this week.)
Ultimately, in gentle of the totality of the circumstances, we expect this week to be very busy–9/10 or 10/10 most dates–however comparatively far much less crowded than the next week. While the climate will hold some Floridians at dwelling, they’ll possible be a drop within the bucket as in comparison with the crush of vacationers descending upon Walt Disney World between Christmas Eve and New Year’s Day.
In truth, we might not be in the least stunned if that finally ends up being the busiest week of the complete 12 months, with wait occasions surpassing Presidents’ Day, peak spring break, and Thanksgiving weeks. Those are at the moment the three busiest weeks of 2022, and the wait time common wanted to “beat” these weeks is 52 minutes. It’s solely attainable that each this week and subsequent surpass that, however we’re betting that subsequent week takes the #1 slot whereas this week “only” enters the highest 5.
There will possible be a drop-off in Walt Disney World attendance after New Year’s Eve, however it’ll nonetheless be busy with locals on winter break and runDisney attendees. Crowds is not going to actually relent till the next week–in different phrases, count on various levels of insanely busy at Walt Disney World between right now and January 9, 2023. Starting that day, we may simply see one other true stretch of winter low season!
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Learn about motels on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To get monetary savings on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips put up takes a singular have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the most effective place to start out is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for every part it’s essential to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on crowds for the remainder of December 2022 and first week of 2023? If you’ve visited this vacation season, what was your notion of “feels like” crowds? If you’re at Walt Disney World proper now (or simply obtained again), have you ever observed rising crowds as Christmas approaches? Thoughts on our predictions or anecdotal observations? Agree or disagree with our opinion that final week was the most effective time of the complete 12 months to go to Walt Disney World? If you’ve visited in prior months over the last 12 months, how did crowds examine between then and now? What did you consider the wait occasions? Any parks or occasions of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we might help you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even whenever you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!