One of the busiest weeks of 2023 will quickly arrive at Walt Disney World, to the shock of many vacationers who count on winter to be low season at Walt Disney World. This publish covers dates to keep away from, why it’ll be so busy, and what to do to beat the lengthy traces and crowds for those who’re already planning a go to throughout this timeframe.
Let’s begin with the excellent news. It is at present low season at Walt Disney World! This is a really current growth and fairly the distinction to our final replace, Colossal Christmas Crowds Cap Off Walt Disney World’s Busiest Year Ever! Now that the vacation break is over, faculty is again in session, and the Walt Disney World Marathon is over, wait instances have plummeted throughout the board.
The dangerous information is that longtime followers anticipating attendance ranges throughout mid-January or February on par with a decade in the past (and even 5 years in the past) will nonetheless be sorely upset. In final yr’s Winter Is Not Off-Season at Walt Disney World, we clarify how January and February crowds have grown since ~2017, and what’s the brand new regular for this time of yr. With that stated, in case your body of reference is final yr as a substitute of a number of years in the past, you would possibly really be pleasantly shocked…
In the span of two weeks, wait instances have primarily been minimize in half. The peak week of the vacation season noticed common wait instances of 61 minutes, and the next week solely dropped to 54 minutes. Keep in thoughts that these are averages, bearing in mind unpopular and perpetual no-wait rides. Meaning that dozens of headliners had triple-digit wait instances
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance peaked at 320 minutes and Avatar Flight of Passage hit 240 minutes–to our information, these have been the best highs. We noticed a number of different rides at or above 180 minutes, which occurred with regularity these two weeks.
It’s additionally notable that the primary week of January was so busy. That timeframe has been getting busier and busier as a result of Osceola and Orange County faculties being out of session (and a rising variety of locals), plus the lifting of Annual Pass blockouts, plus Walt Disney World Marathon Weekend within the final 4 years or so. Nevertheless, that is the busiest that week has ever been.
With that stated, this isn’t a typical backward-looking crowd report. Rather, we need to carry your consideration to an upcoming week that will likely be actually busy–in all probability within the prime 5 worst weeks of the whole yr, and positively within the prime 10. Absent an enormous shock, it is going to be essentially the most crowded window of the primary quarter of 2023.
That timeframe is roughly February 17 to February 26, 2023. This explicit week plus the weekends round it is going to be dangerous as a result of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras as soon as once more coinciding. This occurs infrequently, and at any time when it does, these weeks are notably dangerous.
Compounding these crowds, there’s the 2023 Disney Princess Half Marathon Weekend from February 23 to 26. This is the fifteenth Anniversary of that widespread runDisney occasion, and it way back offered out. In essence, this implies there are two widespread lengthy weekends for Walt Disney World guests plus the week of Mardi Gras, all on prime of each other.
To make issues worse, reductions are usually not blocked out for these journey dates. This isn’t actually such an enormous deal for room reductions, as there’s solely a lot lodge stock on-site at Walt Disney World. Whether particular presents induce extra Florida holidays or just shift the stays between off-site and on-site inns is debatable. (My guess is that it does transfer the needle a bit, however that on-site lodge stock doesn’t have as important of an affect on crowds as many followers imagine.)
The larger affect is prone to outcome from the 2023 Florida Resident Ticket Deal for Walt Disney World. Why that is blocked out for a number of weeks in March and April however not that timeframe is past me–in all probability a matter of precedent or easy oversight. Nevertheless, that ticket deal can even have an effect–particularly in the course of the last dates of the 2023 EPCOT Festival of the Arts, which is widespread with locals.
Speaking of which, that occasion’s finale will likewise contribute to crowds even exterior of the ticket deal. Floridians and even some non-local followers will end up for the conclusion of the more and more widespread EPCOT Festival of the Arts and the ‘grand finale’ of the Disney on Broadway live performance collection (amongst different issues).
Other wildcards will likely be experience refurbishments. We already know that Splash Mountain closes completely on January 23 and that TRON Lightcycle Run gained’t be open till April 2023. Over at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster goes down throughout this window and it’s additionally potential that Tower of Terror will nonetheless be at half-capacity. Hopefully extra isn’t added to the 2023 Walt Disney World Refurbishment Calendar for the second half of February.
An identical confluence of circumstances occurred simply a few years in the past at Walt Disney World. Crowds began swelling a few days upfront of the Presidents’ Day (and so on.) lengthy weekend and obtained actually heavy throughout Mardi Gras week. On our extremely scientific scale of LSU and Saints shirts noticed within the parks, principally the whole state of Louisiana visited Walt Disney World that week.
The last weekend of Mardi Gras was notably busy. All 4 Walt Disney World theme parks hit capability for all ticket sorts and Walt Disney World prolonged weekend park hours on the final minute. That got here after the corporate prolonged hours a number of instances, and the entire hours ended up being about 3 hours per day longer than what was then regular.
As it turned out, the week of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras was one of many busiest weeks of the yr at Walt Disney World. (Ditto Universal Orlando.) It was particularly dangerous for Magic Kingdom the place wait instances have been on par with the week main as much as New Year’s Eve, and better than the week main as much as Christmas. It’s an identical story when wanting again at prior years when Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras coincided.
The key distinction the final time this occurred is that park attendance was nonetheless being closely restricted, with Walt Disney World nonetheless throttling Park Pass reservations and capping capability far under regular. That was additionally amidst what was in any other case a really sluggish winter, which was largely as a result of first huge winter spike in COVID circumstances spooking would-be vacationers. It nonetheless ended up being one of many busiest weeks of that total yr.
Last yr, the 2 holidays didn’t overlap. Despite that, the week of Presidents’ Day was nonetheless one of many worst weeks of the yr–proper up there with the height of Spring Break, and Thanksgiving. It was surpassed by Christmas and New Year’s Eve by a reasonably extensive margin, however was nonetheless up there, with far greater wait instances than the low to reasonable weeks earlier than it in January and February.
We’ve been discussing this week for some time in wait time studies and this week is a “red flag” in our up to date 2023 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars. Again, we’ve predicted it is going to be the busiest week of the primary quarter of the yr, and possibly one of many worst 5 weeks of the whole yr at Walt Disney World.
Nevertheless, we’re pointing it out and drawing extra direct consideration to how dangerous February 17 to February 26, 2023 will likely be as a result of we’ve discovered that even with our warnings up to now, these crowds have caught Walt Disney World guests unexpectedly.
You know what they are saying? “Fool me once, strike one. But fool me twice… strike three.” ~Michael Scott
It’s comprehensible that the spike in crowds continues to shock Walt Disney World followers regardless of there being clear precedent for the Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras spike. This is probably going partially as a result of studies of low crowd ranges for the month or so beforehand lull folks right into a false sense of safety and optimism that low season tendencies will proceed.
If you’re seeing rock-bottom wait instances one week, you in all probability don’t count on these to (primarily) double in a single day. And but, we’ve seen precisely that occur earlier than. It’ll in all probability come near occurring once more when evaluating wait instances from the primary half of February 2023 to the second half.
Then there’s the truth that many planners are usually not conscious that Presidents’ Day is an extended weekend that’s widespread for getaways to Walt Disney World. Not many individuals have that break day work, so it in all probability doesn’t register as a vacation that may meaningfully affect attendance. Presidents’ Day will not be precisely like Thanksgiving, Christmas, or New Year’s Eve.
It’s a kind of decrease profile holidays that doesn’t entice numerous consideration, however however has an outsized affect on crowds at Walt Disney World. It’s quite a bit like Veterans Day in November.
The diploma to which a few states or a area having a faculty break can affect Walt Disney World crowd ranges is definitely fairly important. If you reside in different areas of the United States, you is probably not conscious that Mardi Gras is a “big deal” and widespread journey interval for the Southeast.
It’s additionally a preferred winter break for some Northeast faculty districts. If you don’t dwell in these places, it’s an comprehensible blind spot. The identical factor occurs with Jersey Week, which impacts crowd ranges at Walt Disney World. People who dwell in these places typically know they’re widespread break instances.
However, for those who’re a Midwesterner debating pulling your children out of faculty to flee the chilly, you may be oblivious to that–there’s no apparent or intuitive purpose the primary half of February 2023 will likely be so significantly better than the second half!
I communicate from a point of expertise right here. I’m a local Michigander and my dad and mom used to tug me out of faculty for a brief reprieve from the snow and subzero temperatures round this time of yr, merely focusing on dates to go to Florida primarily based on our climate at residence.
Moreover, I used to be additionally clueless in regards to the affect Mardi Gras had on crowds at Walt Disney World till experiencing the week within the parks and noticing a really seen presence of LSU and Saints shirts (no such love for the poor Pelicans). That’s not a joke–you’ll discover the identical for those who go to that week!
Another purpose you could not count on February 17 to February 26, 2023 to be dangerous is as a result of none of these dates are yellow or gray on the Disney Park Pass calendar (but). In truth, the whole lot of 2023 is at present inexperienced, which can even lull some planners right into a false sense of safety.
While this was early indicator of heavy attendance post-reopening, the reservations calendars have been largely rendered out of date extra just lately. Walt Disney World nonetheless makes use of them to redistribute crowds, pushing folks in direction of Animal Kingdom and EPCOT, however they typically don’t present advance warning of heavy crowds. Some dates nonetheless go gray, however that usually doesn’t happen till the final minute–and a few very busy days have maintained availability.
If you’re a Midwesterner (or anybody for that matter–however a particular shoutout to my fellow Michiganders!) who’s at present freaking out since you picked February 17 to February 26, 2023 (or dates inside that window) to go to Walt Disney World: don’t. Sure, these dates will likely be busy. But it’s additionally a wonderful time of yr within the park with comfy climate (actually higher than what you’ll have at residence!)
On prime of that, following itinerary and using good technique is extra vital than selecting the “right” dates. And as we’ve seen on many events up to now, even those that select dates that ought to be good have had that undermined by shocking crowds, disruptive climate, and so on.
To that finish, it’s solely potential to beat dangerous crowds by using Genie+ and Lightning Lanes, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, and so on. We cowl one of the best & worst method for every park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World. If you’re solely going to learn one planning publish, make it that. There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Genie+ or Individual Lightning Lanes.
By merely arriving early or staying late, you’ll be able to beat the worst of the noon crowds. (Of course, that’s “simple” in principle however tougher in follow, particularly when you have young children. That’s an enormous purpose why wait instances are decrease very first thing within the morning and later within the evenings.) Beyond that, you’ll want to additionally try our Walt Disney World Itineraries for plans of assault, together with choices with and with out Genie+ and Lightning Lanes.
Speaking of which, we’ve a ~4,500 phrase Guide to Genie+ at Walt Disney World & Lightning Lane FAQ for many who need to totally grasp paid QuickPass. Weeks like this, it’s positively possibility for Magic Kingdom, Hollywood Studios, and EPCOT.
Finally, I’ll draw particular consideration to the 2023 After Hours at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. There are solely two of those scheduled in February 2023, however oddly sufficient, one falls dead-center within the window of the worst winter crowds and the opposite is simply earlier than it begins. At current, neither of those dates are offered out (that’s prone to change very quickly).
While we’re crucial of “overbuying” upcharge choices as a result of FOMO and so forth, we really love After Hours at DHS. It’s positively a splurge, nevertheless it’s one which’s really definitely worth the cash. It provides a VIP vibe to the go to, and at a fraction of the value of hiring a tour information. This will likely be doubly or triply true in February 2023 when After Hours is much more helpful as contrasted with a traditional day in Disney’s Hollywood Studios. (I’m actually shocked that Walt Disney World scheduled After Hours that week–they usually don’t do these occasions when attendance projections are excessive.)
For those that are fascinated about a go to to Walt Disney World this winter that’s exterior the second half of February 2023, we’d suggest consulting our February 2023 Crowd Calendar and March 2023 Crowd Calendar for particular finest and worst dates. In explicit, keep away from Osceola and Orange County Ok-12 Spring Breaks. Same goes for our April 2023 Crowd Calendar, though the spike there must be extra apparent (Easter).
The excellent news relating to the Spring Break season is that Florida’s breaks largely happen earlier this yr than these faculty districts which have Easter week off. This ought to unfold out crowds, reasonably than the comparative consolidation of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras. (This is to not say Spring Break 2023 will likely be uncrowded. It won’t. Just that the whole lot of that busy season isn’t being condensed right into a single week, as is the case right here.)
Ultimately, we’ve been warning for over a yr that February 17 to 26, 2023 will likely be dangerous at Walt Disney World. Although this understandably catches trip planners unexpectedly, this isn’t a daring prediction–it’s one backed by no less than a decade of precedent.
The open query is simply how dangerous it’ll find yourself being. For no matter purpose, runDisney is opting to carry the Princess Half Marathon that weekend. That’s additionally not unprecedented, nevertheless it’s however a perplexing determination given the rising crowds. There’s additionally the truth that Walt Disney World has not blocked out reductions for these dates, which can be perplexing however solely precedented. All of this might imply that Disney’s inner attendance forecasts aren’t displaying any trigger for concern…or it could possibly be an entire oversight.
We suspect that it’s the latter; it wouldn’t be the primary (2nd, third…thirty third, forty fifth, and so on.) time that Walt Disney World has whiffed on crowd projections and scheduling. Suffice to say, we suggest planning your winter “off-season” visits to Walt Disney World accordingly to keep away from these “surprise” peak season attendance. If it’s too late for that, do what you’ll be able to to place your self to beat the potential crowds!
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Learn about inns on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To get monetary savings on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets publish. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips publish takes a novel have a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, one of the best place to start out is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for all the things you have to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Have you visited Walt Disney World throughout when Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day coincided up to now? What did you consider the crowds? Any parks, instances of day, or days of the week noticeably worse than the others? What’s your expectation for February 17-26, 2023? If you’ve visited within the weeks earlier than/after Mardi Gras, did you discover an enormous distinction in crowd ranges? Do you agree or disagree with something in our crowd report? Any questions we may help you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!