It has been an insanely busy couple of weeks at Walt Disney World. Wait occasions and crowds reached their highest ranges of the whole yr within the lead-up to Christmas and New Year’s Eve. File that beneath least shocking information ever.
This crowd report shares information not simply from the vacation season, however the whole yr at Walt Disney World. Given the predictable nature of peak vacation attendance, it’s not value fixating on that an excessive amount of. Still, it’s fascinating to take a look at this yr’s vacation highs versus lulls, and this Christmas and New Year’s Eve as in comparison with the final a number of. The vacation season hasn’t been this dangerous shortly, nor has the distinction between the lows and highs been as pronounced.
Of course, there’s additionally shock worth in sharing that Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance had practically a 6-hour posted wait time this morning (January 2, 2023), or that Avatar Flight of Passage clocked in at 4 hours on New Year’s Eve. Or that if you happen to opted to go to in the course of the week of New Year’s, not solely would you be paying the very best costs of the yr on tickets and motels–however you’d even be encountering 20+ sights with wait occasions over an hour. We’re not shocked by this because it’s occurred earlier than…but it surely’s nonetheless a bit startling!
Beyond these eye-popping wait occasions, there really is worth in mentioning that this vacation season represented the primary regular one since 2019 by way of crowd dynamics. So actually, these claiming that it’s “always” like this throughout Christmas and New Year’s could be flawed if wanting on the two most up-to-date years earlier than this one.
In reality, final New Year’s Eve was solely a 7/10 on the group calendar, simply surpassed by Thanksgiving and the next Presidents Day. Then there’s the New Year’s Eve earlier than that, which is barely value mentioning as a result of there was no celebration to talk of and operations have been closely modified.
From our perspective, this vacation season being considerably busier than the final two years will not be the notable side of the story. Rather, it’s the normalization of crowds, which have been falling again into extra predictable patterns over the course of the final a number of months. In a approach, that is excellent news, because it makes our 2023 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendars extra helpful.
This is regardless of Disney Park Pass reservations remaining in place and being utilized in an try to redistribute crowds among the many 4 parks. They additionally restrict attendance to some extent, however that side of the reservation system is now largely overblown–it’s extra about manipulating crowds and pushing extra folks to Animal Kingdom and EPCOT than it’s limiting total attendance.
The dangerous information is that crowd ranges normalized at their highest degree ever final yr. One of the issues we’ve been monitoring in our crowd reviews for the previous few months is whether or not 2022 would surpass 2019 because the yr with the very best posted wait occasions within the historical past of Walt Disney World.
Well, it did. As you may see from the graph under (all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com), 2022 ended up claiming that crown due to extremely heavy crowds to conclude December.
Up till the beginning of the vacation season, 2022 had been 1 minute behind 2019. It ended up ending two minutes forward, with a median wait time of 41 minutes. That’s throughout all sights and all days of the yr, with perpetual walk-ons at low profile rides offsetting the hour-plus wait occasions for fashionable headliners.
(Disregard the towering pink bar that represents 2023; the yr is barely two days previous, each of that are a part of the height vacation season. By late January, that bar can be effectively under final yr or 2019. That’s to not say it gained’t be one other record-setter, simply that it’s untimely to attract any conclusions on the second day of the yr!)
This doesn’t essentially imply final yr was the most-crowded or attended within the historical past of Walt Disney World–simply that it had the very best posted wait occasions. That’s for a number of causes.
First, capability nonetheless has not been totally restored; this will look like a minor one, and it’s now, however that was not the case earlier within the yr when meet & greets, stage exhibits, and Fantasmic have been all absent or closely modified. Second, common park hours have been decreased by a number of hours per day in Magic Kingdom; extra persons are concentrated into fewer working hours, successfully exacerbating wait occasions.
Third, upkeep has gotten worse and trip breakdowns have turn out to be extra frequent; with extra sights not working, wait occasions worsen all over the place else. Finally, posted wait occasions are inflated; this has all the time been a difficulty, but it surely certain appears prefer it has gotten worse within the period of Lightning Lanes. (Disney is successfully incentivized to inflate them to push paid QuickPass.)
As a results of all of this, my wager could be that 2019 nonetheless beat final yr by way of uncooked attendance numbers. There’s completely no approach of proving that, however the totality of the circumstances and varied capability reductions lead me to consider that it’s in all probability true. (Walt Disney World additionally added 3 of its highest wait time rides since 2019, thereby skewing the numbers increased.)
It’ll be fascinating to see how crowds proceed at Walt Disney World in 2023. For our half, we’ve been anticipating a slowdown to some extent, with enhancing capability coinciding with decreased demand. There’s an opportunity this vacation season is the “last hurrah” for journey pent-up demand. As that begins to fizzle out, family financial savings lower, inflation stings extra, and the financial system slows down, it appears more and more possible that Walt Disney World will expertise its personal slowdown.
However, that is likely to be an excessively optimistic outlook. Admittedly, we actually need to see extra manageable crowds and higher reductions return–or at the least for Disney to decelerate the unsustainable tempo of value will increase, which might pose long-term reputational issues.
It’s completely doable that shopper spending patterns have been perpetually modified by COVID, with extra emphasis on experiences than possessions. It’s additionally doable that recession fears are overblown, and American shoppers can be extra resilient than economists worry (a number of airline CEOs have mentioned their ahead bookings are sturdy).
Then there’s additionally the truth that Disney nonetheless has levers to tug–bringing again Annual Passes, eliminating park reservations, and higher particular affords–all of which might maintain and even develop crowds for one more yr in 2023. If there’s a slowdown, it’s a foregone conclusion that some or all of these levers can be pulled. What’s much less clear is whether or not that’ll be sufficient to exceed Walt Disney World’s record-breaking 2022.
It’ll be fascinating to comply with crowds, particular affords, and different bulletins all through 2023 to see how issues play out. For now, let’s dig into the info and rapidly take a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions in the course of the (nonetheless ongoing) vacation season…
Above is weekly numbers for Walt Disney World as a complete.
The ultimate bar is that this week, which simply began however is however the worst of the vacation season. New Year’s week was unsurprisingly busier than Christmas, which is usually the case. This yr, it was much more pronounced as a result of each holidays falling on the weekend–pushing folks in the direction of journeys between Christmas and NYE, fairly than extra evenly distributed earlier than each weeks.
With that mentioned, Christmas was no slouch. It was nonetheless the third busiest week of 2022, surpassing Thanksgiving, Presidents’ Day, and the height of Spring Break.
Breaking it down by day, and it turns into clear simply how dangerous the final couple of weeks have been.
Another factor that ought to be apparent is that the whole vacation season will not be equally busy. Some followers who go to in the course of the lulls declare that these stretches at the moment are closely crowded. Relative to the precise peaks, that’s not true. Visiting in the course of the non-holiday weeks of November or December would’ve meant encountering common waits of 35-37 minutes, versus 52-67 minutes in the course of the peaks. It ought to go with out saying, however that could be a big distinction.
We’ll begin the park-by-park information with Magic Kingdom, which has concluded its porcupine impression for celebration season. The vacation highs have been really not as dangerous as many non-party days in November or December, however the important thing distinction is that the Christmas and NYE crowds have been sustained. You couldn’t merely beat them by visiting on a MVMCP day.
Some of you may have requested about it, and we don’t count on that sample to repeat itself on After Hours at Magic Kingdom dates. If something, the mix-in hours with occasion and day company might really make these dates barely worse. It positively gained’t be something like MNSSHP or MVMCP days, because the park doesn’t shut as early for After Hours as for these occasions.
Continuing to EPCOT, the place wait occasions within the final two weeks of December greater than doubled these earlier within the month.
As all the time, “feels like” crowds at EPCOT–particularly in World Showcase–are all the time worse on weekends, evenings, and holidays. This signifies that regardless that the group degree dropped on New Year’s Eve, congestion didn’t. That’s as a result of many individuals visited EPCOT on NYE for the dance events and fireworks, and never the rides. As all the time, every thing right here makes use of wait occasions as a proxy for crowds–this demonstrates how that may be an imperfect measure.
Similar story at Animal Kingdom, which had a number of of its busiest days of the final 4 years within the final two weeks.
Animal Kingdom is all the time the park with the very best highs and lowest lows, largely as a result of it has fewer rides than the opposite parks. That means it may be “overwhelmed” by the very best crowd ranges, as there isn’t sufficient for all of these folks to do…besides stand in line, apparently. (The excellent news, as all the time, is that Animal Kingdom can be essentially the most “beatable” park; merely arrive early or keep late.)
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Similar story there as to Animal Kingdom, with DHS being much more “top heavy” as a result of so many headliner rides and so few smaller-scale ones. (At least it additionally has stage exhibits, which don’t have posted wait occasions however are one thing to do.)
Thus far, right this moment is the busiest day of the vacation season at Disney’s Hollywood Studios. Earlier this morning, Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance hit a 320 minute posted wait time. It’s “only” 190 minutes proper now, although!
For these questioning why Walt Disney World remains to be so busy, it’s as a result of the vacation season isn’t over but. Longtime followers would possibly recall when New Year’s Day was the beginning of the winter low season. That hasn’t been the case for over a decade.
Wait occasions will stay elevated for the following week because of the Walt Disney World Marathon, which is the most well-liked runDisney occasion of the yr, and can actually begin drawing attendees within the subsequent couple of days. Osceola and Orange County faculties are additionally nonetheless on winter break, as are different districts across the nation. On prime of that, all Walt Disney World Annual Pass tiers at the moment are allowed into the theme parks for the primary time in weeks after vacation blockouts expired right this moment for the 2 lowest ranges of two passes.
This will not be a brand new improvement by any means, however extra aggressive AP blockouts have modified the dynamic within the final a number of years. (We noticed the identical factor occur in early 2019 and 2020, with crowds rising within the week after New Year’s.)
Looking ahead, Disney Park Pass availability is restricted all through the rest of this week. Interestingly, the weekend is broad open. That might be indicative of WDW Marathon individuals not visiting the parks on these days, different vacation vacationers heading house, extra reservation stock, or a mixture of all three and extra.
Regardless, there may be not a single date after January 7, 2023 that’s yellow or gray on the calendar. It’s a sea of inexperienced–at the least, for now.
Ultimately, our expectation is that vacation crowds is not going to really relent till subsequent week. In the meantime, count on various levels of insanely busy at Walt Disney World till January 9, 2023. Starting that day, we would possibly simply see one other true stretch of winter low season for a couple of month.
In reality, that’s exactly our expectation: that January 9, 2023 via February 16, 2023 can be among the many least busy dates of the yr (minus the MLK vacation weekend) at Walt Disney World. To ensure, this winter low season gained’t be “dead” by historic requirements, but it surely ought to be the very best time to go to since mid-August via September of final yr. Just remember the fact that up to date crowds are worse than historic ones–so if you happen to’re one of many individuals who discovered final winter or fall to be “too crowded,” you’ll undoubtedly really feel the identical approach about these Winter 2023 dates.
Oh, and all bets are off heading into the Presidents’ Day vacation weekend. We maintain elevating this pink flag, and it’s as a result of so many underestimate the crowds that “minor” vacation brings to Walt Disney World. It was the fifth busiest week of final yr, and might be even worse in 2023 because of the vacation coinciding with Mardi Gras, which can be a busy week. On the plus facet, maybe Walt Disney World will acknowledge how dangerous that week goes to be, and transfer the “Spring 2023” opening of TRON Lightcycle Run ahead to assist take up crowds. We aren’t holding our breath, but it surely’d be good!
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on Walt Disney World crowds for the remainder of 2023? Surprised that final yr ended up having increased wait occasions than 2019, or is that precisely what you anticipated based mostly on “feels like” crowds throughout your journey? Would you guess that uncooked attendance was additionally increased or decrease? If you’ve visited this vacation season, what was your notion of crowds, congestion, and wait occasions? Thoughts on our predictions or anecdotal observations? What did you consider the wait occasions? Any parks or occasions of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we may help you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas under within the feedback!