Winter is now not the sleepy low season it as soon as was at Walt Disney World, however wait instances have dropped–in some circumstances, fairly dramatically–from their vacation highs. This crowd report shares current knowledge, ideas on what’s prone to occur subsequent with attendance ranges between now and Spring Break, and which dates will find yourself being the busiest.
As has been the case since 2018, winter is mostly a ‘tale of two seasons’ at Walt Disney World. There are peaks and valleys, with actually excessive highs and comparatively low lows. Obviously, Christmas and New Year’s Eve are peak weeks–everybody is aware of that. But it’s not merely gradual between then and Spring Break, and hasn’t been for a number of years.
This yr, the vacation highs continued till Central Florida college districts went again into session and the Walt Disney World Marathon ended. This was additionally predictable, and most followers know that week-plus has gotten unhealthy. However, it was unprecedentedly crowded this yr. So, how have crowds been since then? Let’s have a look…
As at all times, what’s lined in these “crowd” stories is definitely posted wait time knowledge that’s pulled from My Disney Experience and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating varied days, weeks, months, and years. Loads will be gleaned from posted wait instances, however it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
There are a number of different variables that may affect “feels like” crowds, from festivals at EPCOT to climate to visitor demographics to trip breakdowns to operational effectivity to time of day or day of the week. And that’s only a partial checklist! Beyond that, wait instances will be manipulated by Walt Disney World. They’re typically inflated, or in any other case inaccurate.
In quick, wait instances are an imperfect measure of Walt Disney World’s uncooked attendance or crowds–which have elevated by a number of million folks over the course of the final decade-plus. With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the information and take a look at Walt Disney World wait instances. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire.
This is most attention-grabbing for those who examine this January and February to the identical months final yr. Notice January was a lot busier this yr and February, to this point, is far much less busy? Before drawing any untimely conclusions, check out the subsequent graph…
If we break this down by week, the variations ought to be simpler to identify. When it involves this January, the post-NYE winter break crowds have been off the charts (nicely, not actually). By distinction, that first week of January was trending downward as in comparison with the vacations final yr.
As for February, the important thing distinction there may be that Presidents’ Day has not but occurred this yr. That was the massive spike final yr, and skewed crowd ranges upwards for your complete month. Otherwise, it might’ve been a comparatively reasonable winter. Just like this yr.
Above is a take a look at the day by day numbers over the course of the final 6 months.
This illustrates the diploma of the “slowdown,” which is on par with the early December lull. Still not almost pretty much as good because the lows of final September, although. Slowdown receives air quotes as a result of wait instances are solely barely beneath common, and there’s an excellent probability these visiting this time of yr have been anticipating even decrease numbers.
We’ll begin the park-by-park knowledge with Magic Kingdom, the place crowd ranges have normalized this yr after a number of consecutive months of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Party and Mickey’s Very Merry Christmas Party dates.
January 31 is the anomaly, registering a 14 minute common wait time. Whether that was as a result of a spontaneous grassroots boycott or the 4:30 pm park closing time that day is anybody’s guess. One factor price mentioning right here is that the times earlier than and after had 30+ minute common waits. As we’ve mentioned time and time once more, you come out forward with the shorter hours by advantage of the time saved (not) ready in line. Counterintuitive as it’d sound, take the shorter hours!
Above are attraction wait instances for the month so far at Magic Kingdom.
Really not many surprises right here. The one wildcard was Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, and whether or not it’d spike or fall with the closure of Splash Mountain. In actuality, it has not materially modified. Jungle Cruise is lastly returning to actuality, not less than for now. Lots of meet & greets on this checklist once more, which is good to see. Even for those who don’t do them, they add capability and assist take in crowds–particularly vital when a headliner is down for nearly 2 years and the subsequent new trip has not but formally opened.
Continuing to EPCOT, the place crowd ranges have fallen again to earth after their stratospheric highs over the vacation season. Lots of three/10 days, but additionally a scattering of 6/10 and above ones in there, too.
The massive factor this illustrates is simply how otherwise vacationers and locals “do” EPCOT. Attendance isn’t low at EPCOT proper now–removed from it. In reality, the “feels like” crowds are notably unhealthy at instances, owing to the ever-increasing recognition of the EPCOT International Festival of the Arts.
However, nothing at EPCOT’s Festival of the Arts has a posted wait time, and that’s what the above graph measures. Meaning that locals exhibiting up, wandering round, grazing the meals cubicles, having fun with artwork and leisure, however NOT doing a single attraction contribute to crowds however to not crowd ranges. Paradoxically, these individuals are most likely worse for crowdedness, as they’re just about at all times in walkways and never in standby strains. Call it the “EPCOT Effect” or no matter, however it’s noticeable at this park greater than any of the others.
When attraction wait instances, there aren’t any surprises at EPCOT, both.
The prime trio of Remy’s Ratatouille Adventure, Frozen Ever After, and Test Track are all at or above an hour, however the whole lot else has been largely manageable. Give this a couple of extra days and Soarin’ Around the World and Mission: Space will be a part of the checklist of hour-plus common wait instances.
Animal Kingdom can be coming off its vacation highs, with extra manageable wait instances within the final month-plus. The Martin Luther King Jr. Day vacation weekend was additionally busy, however not almost as unhealthy as Christmas break.
After a quieter couple of weeks, wait instances look like trending up once more. The final a number of days have been within the 8/10 vary, which is attention-grabbing and a bit shocking. These numbers will worsen, however that shouldn’t occur till the top of this week and the weekend.
As with the opposite parks, particular person trip wait instances are nearly precisely what we’d anticipate.
Avatar Flight of Passage is sort of off the chart, adopted not-so-closely by Na’vi River Journey and Kilimanjaro Safaris. As at all times, that is the park the place it’s best to beat the crowds for those who merely arrive early or keep late. Just don’t do what everybody else does, which is roll up late, do rides throughout the center of the day when wait instances are at their absolute worst, earlier than bouncing early.
Finally, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios. This is a reasonably comparable story to Animal Kingdom, albeit with a extra pronounced spike for MLK Day weekend. As with DAK, crowds even have elevated and held regular for the final week at DHS.
During that point, common wait instances have ranged from 44 to 50 minutes. I wouldn’t anticipate averages to fall again beneath 40 minutes till early May. In the subsequent week, averages will seemingly spike to over 60 minutes once more, if not worse.
Disney’s Hollywood Studios is the place the person attraction wait instances are the worst and the averages on the prior day by day graph are arguably misleading. This is as a result of a number of reveals skew the typical down due to ~10 minute posted wait instances. Meanwhile, there are extra headliners with 60+ minute waits than another park.
Speaking of which, Tower of Terror stays excessive on the checklist as a result of one of many elevator shafts being out of service (once more). Expect that to alter this week, because it’s again to full capability forward of the busy break season. Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance and Slinky Dog Dash will each surpass it, and it’s doable {that a} couple different sights will, too.
Finally, let’s check out how all of this compares to Universal Orlando.
The most putting factor to me about this graph is the diploma to which Universal’s parks comply with seasonal attendance tendencies and tourism knowledge. Conventional knowledge is that Universal has gained market share amongst Floridians as they’ve catered to locals extra aggressively and truly promote Annual Passes. This has been the dominant narrative and, frankly, one I purchased and superior within the yr following the reopening.
However, the wait time knowledge and tendencies beginning firstly of final yr now not help that place. This isn’t to say Universal Orlando is underperforming or something of the kind, however for those who’re anticipating Universal to overhaul Disney, you would possibly wish to alter your expectations. That is, except you’re utilizing a Yogi Berra-ism to clarify Disney’s downfall: “Nobody goes there anymore. It’s too crowded.”
Aside from that, not a very attention-grabbing or illuminating wait instances and crowd report. Aside from the Martin Luther King Jr. Day vacation weekend, issues have been fairly uneventful since college went again into session within the second week of January. The final a number of weeks have largely been within the barely beneath to barely above common vary–that means fairly reasonable crowds throughout the board.
This has been nearly precisely on par with final yr. In reality, the typical weekly wait instances are inside a couple of minutes of final yr’s numbers. Again, that seemingly barely understates the ‘feels like’ crowd ranges, particularly at EPCOT. Nevertheless, that can be constant from yr to yr, as winter is a time that pulls locals to the parks.
This is nice information and a ‘nature is healing’ report from the angle of crowd calendars. After a pair years of unpredictability (or not less than much less predictability) as a result of cancellations, reservations, pent-up demand, and different abnormalities, this winter has settled into a really predictable sample. It’s unhealthy information from the angle of crowd stories, as there’s little or no that’s actually attention-grabbing right here. (I’ve been pushing aside writing one in every of these for the final a number of weeks as a result of I figured it’d be a uninteresting one primarily based on the information, however figured I ought to do it earlier than the craziness kicks off…)
Speaking of which, it’s fairly protected to foretell that this coming week will probably be busier than final week. Another not-so-bold prediction is that the upcoming weekend will probably be busier than the weekend that simply concluded…and that the week following that will probably be actually unhealthy, too. As a reminder, that is the confluence of Presidents’ Day, Mardi Gras, Princess Half Marathon, and a pair youth sporting occasions at ESPN Wide World of Sports.
We not too long ago highlighted simply how unhealthy this will probably be within the Worst Week of Winter is Coming at Walt Disney World. Suffice to say, this would be the busiest week of the primary quarter and could possibly be one of many 5 worst weeks of 2023–proper up there with Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, and the height of spring break.
With that mentioned, I’m stunned by the Disney Park Pass scenario. Currently, the one yellow day is that this coming Friday, with solely Magic Kingdom being unavailable. I believed for positive extra of these days would replenish at MK and DHS by now, if not as a result of natural demand, because of Disney’s want to redistribute attendance.
That’s one constructive that we’ve seen during the last couple months–Walt Disney World has not been using Park Pass to normalize attendance throughout all 4 parks. This is one thing we noticed even final August and September, when crowd ranges have been at their lowest. I’m curious what prompted the change. Could be staffing, visitor satisfaction, or misplaced enterprise because of attempting to “force” folks to go to sure parks. Perhaps a mix of the above.
Regardless, this development ought to put us one step nearer to Walt Disney World retiring reservations for everybody besides APs, or maybe for all dates besides peak vacation weeks. If subsequent week stays inexperienced–and even yellow–the Park Pass system arguably has served its function and is now not wanted for all friends or dates.
Nevertheless, our prediction is that the typical wait time exceeds 50 minutes subsequent week, and possibly finally ends up round 52-55 minutes. That would put the general crowd stage at 10/10, and on the upper aspect of that. To put that into perspective, final week common 39 minutes, which precisely common–5/10 on the group calendar.
A distinction of +11 minutes could not look like a lot, however it’s big over the course of your complete day. (Those further minutes additionally disproportionately affect common sights, since reveals typically don’t improve in any respect.) For the typical visitor, that quantities to an additional couple of hours spent standing in strains per day or, extra seemingly, fewer high-profile sights achieved.
More so than regular, we extremely advocate beating the crowds as finest as doable by using Genie+ and Lightning Lanes, Early Entry, Extended Evening Hours, rope drop, and so on. We cowl the perfect & worst strategy for every park in Best Time-Saving Strategies for Walt Disney World. If you’re solely going to learn one planning put up, make it that. There are nice methods to beat the crowds–even on busy days–with out shopping for Genie+ or Individual Lightning Lanes.
Ultimately, we predict this week to turn out to be more and more busy, however nonetheless nothing as in comparison with the upcoming weekend and week that follows. It’s actually not a matter of “if” it’s crowded, however somewhat, how excessive the wait instances get. Will this surpass winter break because the busiest week of 2023 to date? Will it find yourself being worse than the height of spring break? One of the 5 worst weeks of the yr?
As a reminder, Presidents’ Day week final yr ended up being tied, wait time-wise, with Orange County’s Spring Break. Those weeks weren’t dethroned because the busiest of the yr till Christmas and New Year’s (even Thanksgiving wasn’t as unhealthy). That was with out Presidents’ Day coinciding with Mardi Gras, suggesting that this yr could possibly be even worse. Whether it finally ends up being the busiest of the yr stays to be seen, however we’re guessing it finally ends up being within the prime 5.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Learn about inns on our Walt Disney World Hotels Reviews web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Reviews. To lower your expenses on tickets or decide which sort to purchase, learn our Tips for Saving Money on Walt Disney World Tickets put up. Our What to Pack for Disney Trips put up takes a singular take a look at intelligent gadgets to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Ride Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the perfect place to begin is our Walt Disney World Trip Planning Guide for the whole lot it’s good to know!
YOUR THOUGHTS
Predictions on crowds for the remainder of February 2023 and Spring Break? If you’ve visited this winter season, what was your notion of “feels like” crowds? Do you assume it’s been a return to the low season of years previous, or nearly indistinguishable from busier vacation timeframes? Thoughts on our predictions? Agree or disagree with something right here? If you’ve visited in prior months over the last yr, how did crowds examine between then and now? What did you consider the wait instances? Any parks or instances of day noticeably worse than the others? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we can assist you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even while you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!