For over a yr, we’ve been elevating ‘red flags’ in our up to date 2023 Walt Disney World Crowd Calendar about final week because of the confluence of holidays, particular occasions, and college breaks. In this wait occasions report, we’ll see how these predictions in comparison with actuality, protecting what we obtained proper and mistaken.
Going into final week, expectations had been extremely excessive. In addition to the flagging that week for some time, we had a standalone submit in the beginning of this yr warning that the the Worst Week of Winter is Coming at Walt Disney World. Our forecast known as for final week to be the busiest week of the primary quarter and stated it may very well be one of many 5 worst weeks of 2023–proper up there with Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, and the height of spring break.
That timeframe we recognized for these colossal crowds was roughly February 17 to February 26, 2023. This explicit week and the weekends round it had been anticipated to be very unhealthy because of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras as soon as once more coinciding. The final time that occurred, all 4 parks hit capability, park hours had been prolonged on the final minute, and the parks skilled peak crowd ranges.
Despite the 2 holidays not coinciding final yr, it was a really comparable story. The week of Presidents’ Day was nonetheless one of many worst weeks of the yr–proper up there with the height of Spring Break, and Thanksgiving. It was surpassed by Christmas and New Year’s Eve by a reasonably large margin, with far greater wait occasions than the low to reasonable weeks earlier than it in January and February.
In explicit, the Wednesday after Presidents’ Day was the busiest day of the yr for months after, “thanks” to a ten/10 crowd degree and common wait time of 61 minutes. It was not dethroned till the Monday of Thanksgiving lastly surpassed it, with a 64 minute wait. During winter break after Christmas, many different days ended up having comparable 61+ minute common waits. But for a number of months, no week was worse than that of Presidents’ Day.
Compounding the crowds this yr, there have been a number of cheerleading occasions on the ESPN Wide World of Sports on each weekends bookending the vacation and the 2023 Disney Princess Half Marathon Weekend. That meant extra faculty breaks because of each Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day taking place concurrently, plus these sporting occasions drawing much more company to Walt Disney World.
At least partially, we have already got an thought of how crowds performed out at Walt Disney World over the vacation week. As mentioned in Genie+ Sold Out for the First Two Times Ever at Walt Disney World, the paid QuickPass service stopped gross sales on Presidents’ Day and the Sunday previous to it, with the paid QuickPass service promoting out between midday and a couple of pm these days. This was regardless of it reaching its document worth level on each–$29 per individual, earlier than tax.
On Tuesday, the value of Genie+ dropped again right down to $22 per individual (pre-tax) and the paid QuickPass service didn’t promote out. It stayed at that worth level by means of Friday, after which dropped even additional to $20 for the weekend. Genie+ costs are often a robust indicator of inside attendance forecasts by Walt Disney World.
As a results of this, you may be inclined to imagine that Walt Disney World was much less busy on Tuesday. However, that was not the case based on wait time information. Across the whole lot of Walt Disney World, the typical wait time was 56-57 minutes on Saturday by means of Monday–the vacation weekend days when Genie+ was $29 per individual.
Tuesday ended up being the busiest day of the vacation week, when the typical wait time throughout Walt Disney World was 61 minutes. Sound acquainted? It’s primarily a repeat of final yr, proper right down to the identical precise wait time. The solely distinction is that the height occurred on Tuesday as an alternative of Wednesday this yr, however there’s not likely any significance in that.
What’s extra attention-grabbing is what occurred the remainder of the week, and for that, we’ll flip to posted wait time information. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Data.com:
Let’s begin with the month-to-month common. Up entrance, we have to acknowledge that August by means of October 2021 are nonetheless actually skewing this. If you don’t recall, these are when masks guidelines had been reinstated and Delta spiked, inflicting large cancellations. At this level, these have zero bearing on present crowds, and people months ‘falling off’ the chart will assist reset crowd ranges based mostly on precise present tendencies.
In any case, January/February 2022 to January/February 2023 is an apples to apples comparability. This January was a lot worse than final yr, whereas this February has been barely higher than final yr. The common wait time this month has been 42 minutes, versus 45 minutes final February. Let’s drill down a bit additional to see when weeks and days are skewing the info…
For January, it’s unsurprisingly the start of the yr. We ‘warned’ of this earlier than it occurred, however haven’t actually touched on the aftermath of winter break post-New Year’s Eve. In any case, you may plainly see that week is the worst of the yr to date, with greater common wait occasions than each the week of New Year’s Eve and this previous week. That alone makes the titular headline in our final submit mistaken.
In reality, final week was “only” a 9/10 on the gang calendar based mostly on these wait occasions, which places it (roughly) on par with Thanksgiving somewhat than Christmas, New Year’s Eve, or the post-NYE week (which is definitely each the worst week of winter and of the final 500 days). We already know there have been a number of 10/10 days over the past couple of weeks, so let’s drill down additional to see why the weekly common was solely 9/10…
Above is a take a look at each day crowd ranges based mostly upon posted wait occasions to date in 2023. As beforehand talked about, the very best bar on the best is the Tuesday after Presidents’ Day. That’s a ten/10, and so are the Saturday by means of Monday earlier than it, and the Wednesday after it.
What’s actually skewing the info is the times following that. In explicit, yesterday was solely a 1/10! This is definitely not completely unprecedented, however the diploma to the dropoff is a bit staggering. Normally, the day of main runDisney occasions sees decrease wait occasions–it’s an observable development that occurs with every occasion (check out January 8, the bottom bar amongst reds and oranges) and has for years. However, I’ve by no means seen it drop all the way in which to 1/10 throughout an in any other case crowded week. That’s a brand new one to me!
It’s the same state of affairs previous to the beginning of the vacation weekend, when crowd ranges had been within the 2/10 to five/10 vary. That half is not any shock; we didn’t count on (or predict) that days earlier than 2/17 could be busy. So that week having its common dragged down was to be anticipated. But I by no means anticipated that to happen with the tail-end of the week of Presidents’ Day and Mardi Gras, particularly heading right into a runDisney occasion weekend that ought to’ve helped offset these heading house from vacation break on Thursday by means of Saturday.
I don’t assume the person parks actually add a lot to assist perceive what occurred, however right here these are anyway:
The crowd dynamics are fairly constant throughout the board. Wait occasions spiked main into and out of Presidents’ Day, however fizzled out towards the top of that week, falling from reasonably excessive on Thursday and Friday to flat-out mild ranges on Sunday.
Despite that, we may declare this as a victory, as crowds did hit 10/10 for a number of consecutive days throughout what was anticipated to be the center of the vacation break. I’d hazard a guess that most individuals visiting final week felt the parks had been fairly crowded.
Personally, I’m extra targeted on what we obtained mistaken. For one factor, the prediction was “worst week” and never “series of 10/10 days.” My expectation was that the complete week would no less than be on par with final yr, particularly given the timing of Mardi Gras. The undeniable fact that it wasn’t is shocking. (Honestly, I anticipated most days final week to be excessive 10/10 days, not regular ones nearly on the cusp of 9/10.)
I’m additionally questioning why there was such a pointy drop-off main into (and out of) Princess Half Marathon Weekend. This doesn’t align with what occurred final yr, and is a bit perplexing in consequence. Did extra runDisney contributors come down for the race however not go to the parks? Did individuals reduce their vacation breaks quick and head house early?
For these inclined to assume that Universal Orlando pulled individuals away from Walt Disney World…don’t. Crowd ranges had been 9/10 or 10/10 there Saturday by means of Tuesday, however equally dropped off after that. In common, Universal has had a comparatively quiet winter.
As we mentioned in our final crowd report, Universal’s parks are as soon as once more carefully following seasonal attendance tendencies and tourism information for Central Florida. For a few years, typical knowledge was that Universal gained market share on Walt Disney World amongst Floridians as they’ve catered to locals extra aggressively and really promote Annual Passes. Based on every part we noticed, that was true between Summer 2020 and 2021. It seems to have stopped being the case initially of final yr, although.
With that stated, it’s robust to completely clarify the decrease wait occasions (comparatively talking) late final week and over the weekend at Walt Disney World. In explicit, wait occasions falling because the Princess Half crowd arrived is fairly perplexing. Perhaps it’s a matter of runDisney diehards not having Annual Passholders and never eager to pay for multi-day tickets. Airfare and resort prices may’ve pushed non-runners on vacation break to depart earlier.
It’s additionally doable that climate is the first rationalization, with little change in ‘behavior’ on the a part of runDisney contributors. Much of the United States skilled excessive climate late final week and into the weekend, with snowstorms throughout the nation from Maine to Southern California. Many areas that didn’t expertise snow as an alternative had been handled to rain and hail. This resulted in 1000’s of flight cancellations each day beginning Thursday–and double or triple the variety of delays. That in all probability performed a major position, too.
Setting all of that apart, one factor that I do assume is actually fascinating is the distinction between the primary week of January (the precise worst week of winter) and final week. Since 2019, the primary week has been getting busier and busier because of Osceola and Orange County faculties being out of session (and a rising variety of locals), plus the lifting of Annual Pass blockouts, plus Walt Disney World Marathon Weekend within the final 4 years or so. It was actually unhealthy in early 2020 (particularly at DHS, the place many locals had been experiencing Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance for the primary time), however 2023 is the busiest that week has ever been–by far.
It’s inconceivable to “untangle” the assorted variables impacting crowds in early January, however the explosion of the native inhabitants is the one factor that has modified throughout that point. Additionally, the 2023 Florida Resident Ticket Deal for Walt Disney World was NOT provided then (however was provided this previous week). This suggests to me that plenty of locals are nonetheless Annual Passholders, getting in when gross sales reopened and never letting their passes lapse since.
I might guess that that is an “underappreciated” demographic, particularly on websites like this one the place we hear complaints from aggrieved Annual Passholders who aren’t renewing and likewise from these new locals who’re unable to buy new passes. Meanwhile, there are in all probability loads of native APs who’re doing their factor, visiting the parks, with out voicing their opinions on-line.
Given the Walt Disney World wait time information and the way it doesn’t at all times monitor with Universal or MCO’s traveler quantity, it’s in all probability protected to say that Walt Disney World has a really wholesome variety of Annual Passholders in Florida. (That would additionally partially clarify why AP gross sales haven’t resumed, regardless of restarting in California.)
Ultimately, it was nonetheless a (largely) very busy week at Walt Disney World. Anyone who hasn’t visited the parks throughout winter within the final 4 years–or didn’t notice Mardi Gras is an enormous vacation break for some faculty districts–was in all probability blown away by the excessive wait occasions. Several consecutive 10/10 days will not be precisely uncrowded, in any case.
Nevertheless, Walt Disney World wait occasions weren’t as excessive as we anticipated, nor had been crowds elevated for the complete length of dates had been predicted. For probably the most half, this was not unhealthy forecasting–we had historic precedent and wait time information to go by, making these predictions nearly apparent. (The one exception was Sunday–based mostly on current runDisney occasions, we should always’ve had that as a reasonable day. Even that may’ve been mistaken because it was just one/10!)
If something, this could reinforce the truth that there aren’t any “sure things” in Walt Disney World crowd predictions. Weather (each domestically and throughout the nation), flight cancellations, common airfare and resort prices, and different variables all can throw a monkey wrench into issues. It could be smart for everybody to maintain that in thoughts when studying and relying upon our Spring Break 2023 Crowd Calendar for Walt Disney World. We’re pretty assured in these predictions, however nothing is ever 100% sure. And as at all times, savvy technique goes to beat selecting the “right” dates 9 occasions out of 10.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Did you go to Walt Disney World throughout Mardi Gras and Presidents’ Day 2023? What did you consider the crowds? Any parks, occasions of day, or days of the week noticeably worse than the others? Did you discover the previous few days to be noticeably much less busy than the primary half of the week or earlier weekend? If you’ve visited in previous weeks earlier than/after Mardi Gras, did you discover an enormous distinction in crowd ranges? Do you agree or disagree with something in our crowd report? Any questions we might help you reply? Hearing your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!